Hanert, EmmanuelHeggy, EssamRamnauth, NylanNylanRamnauth2025-05-142025-05-142025-05-142023https://hdl.handle.net/2078.2/32267The Arabian Gulf is one of the most water-scarce regions on Earth, a situation projected to worsen due to escalating stress on aquifers and the anticipated impacts of global warming. In the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, an average of 80% of drinking water is provided by desalination plants. These systems rely heavily on such facilities, especially in Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) where limited groundwater reserves are available to sustain their densely populated cities. Additionally, the region plays a pivotal role in global energy supply, with over a fifth of global oil production passing through the Strait of Hormuz. As European countries strive to reduce their reliance on Russian gas imports following the invasion of Ukraine, they are increasingly turning towards UAE and Qatar for alternatives. Indeed, over 20% of global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports originates from Qatar's main industrial site of Ras Laffan. Unfortunately, all of these sensitive coastal infrastructures are vulnerable to oil spills, and this vulnerability remains largely unquantified besides Qatar. Here, we model oil-spill dispersal in the Gulf waters to identify which offshore areas and times of the year pose the greatest threat to the Gulf’s Oil and Gas (O&G) export and seawater desalination facilities. By combining oil transport simulations with marine traffic data, we identify two high risks-areas of about 16,700 km². The former is located along the eastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula, potentially compromising the region's two LNG facilities by crossing the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and UAE. The latter threatens the vital desalination plants serving more than six millions people in the cities of Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Sharjah along the northeastern coast of UAE. The vulnerability is not uniformly distributed throughout the Gulf and Saudi oil terminals, together with Qatari and Emirati seawater desalination and O&G export facilities, are the most exposed, particularly during summer. This increased risk during summer months is due to the high seasonal variability of the Gulf atmospheric and oceanic circulation. We thus suggest that these offshore high-risk areas be closely monitored, utilizing airborne and satellite synthetic-aperture radar providing early warning for oil spills that could severely disrupt not only local water supplies but also significantly impact the global energy market.Water resourcesOil spillNatural hazardsEnergy supply and demandVulnerabilityArabian GulfOpenDriftDesalinationOil and Gastext::thesis::master thesisthesis:40536