Impact of climate change on mortality risk: A prospective approach on belgian data

Details

Supervisors

Hainaut, Donatien

Faculty

Faculté des sciences

Degree label

Master [120] en sciences actuarielles, à finalité spécialisée

Abstract

enThis thesis starts from a simple observation: climate change is no longer background noise but a measurable driver of mortality trajectories that actuaries must explicitly incorporate to price credibly. The aim is pragmatic: to quantify, on Belgian data, the effect of temperatures (and their extremes) on mortality by 2050 and to infer the implications for life insurance premiums. The approach remains close to practice: we rely on established stochastic longevity models, extend them with a climate index and a hot-summer trigger, and compare their fit and predictive performance. The work is reproducible, built on public data and R routines, with an emphasis on parsimony, identifiability, and transparency about limitations (cause-of-death measurement uncertainty, sample choices, climate scenario assumptions). Rather than a global attribution exercise, this is an operational contribution for Belgian portfolios: delivering projections and premium deltas usable in pricing, reserving, and risk management.