Media and Electoral Competition in an Illiberal Democracy: Evidence from Hungary (2006-2018)

Details

Supervisors

Cassan, Guilhem ; Giuliani, Marco

Faculty

Faculté des sciences économiques, sociales, politiques et de communication

Degree label

Master [120] en sciences économiques, orientation générale, à finalité spécialisée

Abstract

enThis dissertation examines how cable television served as a critical source of information resistance during Hungary's democratic transformation from 2006 to 2018. As Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party systematically captured traditional media outlets after 2010, cable television's partial independence created a natural experiment in media diversity's electoral impact. Using a difference-in-differences design exploiting spatial variation in cable penetration across 20 counties and temporal variation across four parliamentary elections, this study provides the first systematic quantitative analysis of media effects during Hungary's democratic backsliding. The findings reveal three significant impacts. Cable access showed positive mobilization effects on turnout, reaching 0.078 percentage points. Cable penetration improved participation quality, reducing invalid votes by 0.0094 percentage points per 1% increase in access. Most importantly, cable television significantly undermined Fidesz support, reducing vote share by 0.132 percentage points per 1% penetration increase during the post-reform period. The counterfactual analysis reveals that universal cable access could have prevented Fidesz's constitutional supermajorities in 2014 and 2018, proving that infrastructure-based media pluralism can partially resist information monopolization.