Education Inequality and the Structure of Fertility in China: A Theoretical Framework

Details

Supervisors

De la Croix, David ; Santoni, Michele

Faculty

Faculté des sciences économiques, sociales, politiques et de communication

Degree label

Master [120] en sciences économiques, orientation générale, à finalité approfondie

Abstract

enThis paper develops a theoretical framework to explain how institutionalized education inequality shapes fertility behavior and birth structure in China. Using an overlapping generations (OLG) model with heterogeneous households, we analyze how segmented access to high-quality education—via school district housing costs and private tutoring fees—affects family decisions on fertility and human capital investment. The model incorporates China's evolving birth policy and demonstrates that education access thresholds create sharp fertility discontinuities across income levels. Even in the absence of formal restrictions, structural education costs continue to suppress fertility among middle-income households. Comparative statics show that policies targeting education cost structures—such as tutoring bans, housing reform, and public subsidies—are more effective in shaping fertility outcomes than merely lifting birth limits. The model also provides a theoretical account of the middle-class squeeze as an equilibrium outcome. These findings highlight the need to integrate education and housing reform into demographic policy. In stratified societies like China, reducing education inequality may be the most effective path to fertility recovery.