Sustainability assessment and optimization of the agricultural export portfolio in the Souss-Massa basin, Morocco, in relation to water resources

Details

Supervisors

Van den Broeck, Goedele ; Frikhat, Omar

Faculty

Faculté des bioingénieurs

Degree label

Master [120] : bioingénieur en sciences et technologies de l'environnement, à finalité spécialisée

Abstract

enThe Souss-Massa basin, located in southwestern Morocco, is the country’s leading horticultural export region and one of its most water-stressed basins. Agriculture accounts for the largest share of water use, while groundwater overexploitation have become a major concern. In this context, the expansion of export-oriented agriculture raises an important question: to what extent is the current export crop portfolio aligned with the basin’s hydrological constraints, and how could crop reallocation reduce virtual water exports while preserving export value? This thesis addresses this question through two complementary analyses. First, a national diagnostic compares 19 major Moroccan export crops according to their water footprint, water economic productivity, and contribution to virtual water exports, using FAOSTAT data averaged over 2019–2023 and crop water requirements estimated with CROPWAT. Second, a multi-objective linear programming model is applied to ten export crops in the Souss-Massa basin to explore trade-offs between export value and virtual water reduction. The diagnostic shows strong differences across crops. Some crops, such as tangerines, blueberries and oranges, contribute significantly to virtual water exports while generating relatively low economic value per cubic metre of water. By contrast, tomatoes show a more favourable water-economic profile. The optimization results show that crop-area reallocation can reduce water pressure with limited economic losses. In the revenue-maximizing scenario, export value increases by 23.7% while virtual water exports decrease by 28.78% compared with the initial situation. When the model prioritizes further water savings while retaining 75% of the maximum feasible revenue, virtual water exports fall to 48.1% of their initial level, while export value remains at 92.7% of the initial value. The agricultural water stress ratio also falls below the sustainability threshold in the optimized scenarios. These findings suggest that integrating water efficiency into crop planning can improve the sustainability of export-oriented agriculture in Souss-Massa without strongly compromising economic performance.