An Empirical Evaluation of the Impact of Regional Diasporas in North Rhine-Westphalia on Future Migration Patterns

Details

Supervisors

Docquier, Frédéric ; Mayneris, Florian

Faculty

Faculté des sciences économiques, sociales, politiques et de communication

Degree label

Master [120] en sciences économiques, orientation générale

Abstract

This thesis exploits a dataset on regional diasporas in the German federal state North Rhine-Westphalia. I develop a random utility model of migration as theoretical foundation for the empirical estimation. In this framework, I estimate the importance of the network effect of regional migrant networks on future migration patterns. Implementing various fixed effects, I find that the size of a diaspora is a strong predictor for future migration flows. Extending the baseline model by further relevant factors sheds light on the functioning of these network effects. Firstly, the network effect is weaker for refugees in the German context. This is likely related to the implemented distribution mechanism that limits location choice of asylum seekers. Secondly, I find that the assimilation channel largely dominates the policy channels: networks effects are hence not driven by family reunification programs. These results highlight the importance of regional diasporas for a deep understanding of migration flows.