How are evolving trends blurring the traditional boundaries between commodity and specialty coffee, and what does this mean for the future of specialty coffee as a distinct category?

Details

Supervisors

Cornuel, Eric

Faculty

Louvain School of Management

Degree label

Master [120] en sciences de gestion, à finalité spécialisée

Abstract

This thesis explores how evolving market trends are blurring the traditional boundaries between commodity and specialty coffee and examines the implications of this transformation for the future of specialty coffee as a distinct category. Drawing on a combination of literature review and qualitative interviews with key industry actors, importers, a roaster, and coffee shop owners, the study investigates how rising production costs, climate change, geopolitical tensions, and shifting consumer expectations are reshaping the coffee landscape.   Historically, specialty coffee has been defined by its superior quality, ethical sourcing, traceability, and premium pricing. However, recent developments, including the rise of “middle coffees,” price convergence between commodity and specialty segments, and the widespread adoption of specialty branding by mainstream actors, have challenged these distinctions. The findings reveal growing concern among supply chain professionals that the term "specialty" risks losing its meaning if current trends continue.   Interviewees describe a market increasingly polarized between high-end micro-lots and mass-market offerings, with a shrinking space for accessible specialty products. While some actors adopt adaptive strategies, such as diversifying portfolios, securing fixed-price contracts, or enhancing consumer education, others express concern about the long-term sustainability of specialty practices under current economic pressures.   The study concludes that maintaining the integrity of specialty coffee requires coordinated efforts across the value chain. This includes clear communication, strategic sourcing, and a recommitment to quality and transparency. By analyzing how actors respond to the market's evolving trends, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of the evolving specialty coffee sector. It offers practical recommendations for preserving its core values in an increasingly complex and competitive landscape.