The triple burden of malnutrition in Indonesia: what role for transnational market forces?

(2025)

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Abstract
The role of structural macroeconomic transformations in shaping child nutritional outcomes has received limited attention in the literature. Although phenomena such as the expansion of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), land grabbing, and the growth of supermarkets have profoundly reshaped food systems, their impact on child malnutrition remains underexplored, particularly in Indonesia, where the Triple Burden of Malnutrition (TBM), (the coexistence of undernutrition, micronutrient deficiencies, and overweight), is an increasingly pressing concern. This thesis empirically examines the relationship between FDI, land grabbing, supermarket expansion, and child nutrition indicators (stunting, wasting, overweight, and vitamin A supplementation). Using panel data from 33 Indonesian provinces for the period 2020–2023 and a random effects model with Mundlak correction, the analysis distinguishes between urban and rural contexts. The study contributes to filling a gap in the literature by investigating macroeconomic drivers rarely considered in relation to TBM. The results show that FDI and land grabbing have no direct statistically significant effects on nutritional outcomes but indirectly influence food security and diet quality through systemic changes in food systems. Wasting appears to be determined primarily by household- or individual-level factors, while stunting is sensitive to structural drivers only in rural areas, reflecting its cumulative and context-dependent nature. Land grabbing is negatively associated with vitamin A supplementation coverage in rural provinces, suggesting potential institutional weaknesses in public health service delivery. The expansion of supermarkets is linked to reduced stunting but may initially contribute to increased overweight in rural areas, possibly due to a “novelty effect” related to dietary transitions. These findings suggest that nutrition policies must be regionally tailored and address not only health-related factors but also the broader structural dynamics of food systems, education, and local governance.