Is a 100% decarbonized European airline industry by 2050 illusional?

Details

Supervisors

Willems, Bert ; Contino, Francesco

Faculty

Louvain School of Management

Degree label

Master [120] : ingénieur de gestion, à finalité spécialisée

Abstract

This thesis investigates the potential for achieving a 100% decarbonized European airline industry by 2050 in line with IATA’s global objectives. It explores the challenges, opportunities, and strategic approaches required for this significant transition. The study focuses on Biofuel SAF and E-fuels as primary solutions for reducing the carbon footprint of aviation. Through a comprehensive literature review and empirical research, including semi-structured interviews with industry experts, the thesis identifies key barriers such as high costs, resource availability, supply chain complexities, and regulatory uncertainties. Despite the theoretical feasibility of a fully SAF-powered industry, the findings reveal a general skepticism among experts about meeting IATA’s 2050 decarbonization targets even in Europe due to practical challenges and human factors influencing investment and regulatory decisions, which slow down this transition. The thesis emphasizes the need for clear, flexible, and ambitious regulations, as well as innovative financing mechanisms, to support the industry's transition. It also highlights the importance of social diffusion and public awareness in accelerating the adoption of sustainable practices in aviation. While the goal of 100% decarbonization by 2050 remains ambitious and seems unachievable, the research concludes that significant progress is possible with concerted efforts from policymakers, industry stakeholders, and consumers. The study contributes to the ongoing discussion on sustainable aviation by providing insights into the complex interplay of technological, economic, and social factors shaping the future of the European airline industry.