The Distributive Effects of Forest Certification: A Theoretical Analysis

(2025)

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Abstract
Forest certification is an essential tool for promoting sustainable forest management. This study employs a North-South trade model to analyse the distributive impacts of introducing forest certification, with a focus on income disparities between certified and uncertified producers in the South. In the absence of certification, Southern producers exploit forest resources freely, potentially leading to overexploitation. Certification enforces sustainable practices, allowing certified producers to maintain forest harvest volumes over time. A static model demonstrates that, with effective transfers, certified producers can offset productivity losses and experience income gains, while uncertified producers face price declines and reduced income. Extending the analysis to a two-period dynamic model shows that certified producers can sustain forest resources and secure future income, whereas uncertified producers overexploit resources in the first period, resulting in resource depletion and income losses in the second period. These findings suggest that, while promoting sustainability, certification may also contribute to widening inequality among Southern producers.