Analyse comparée des déterminants de l'insertion professionnelle (premier emploi, durée du premier emploi, changements d'emploi...) dans les capitales africaines des années 1950 aux années 1990

Details

Supervisors

Bocquier, Philippe

Faculty

Faculté des sciences économiques, sociales, politiques et de communication

Degree label

Master [120] en sciences de la population et du développement, à finalité spécialisée: démographie

Abstract

enThis research consists of a multivariate longitudinal stochastic analysis of the rate of entry into the labor market of men and women seeking their first job in the two competing sectors of activity in the labor market of sub-Saharan African capitals between the early 1950s and the late 1990s: the so-called “formal” capitalist sector and the so-called “informal” traditional African sector. The ultimate goal is to identify, based on biographical data from a sample of 5,262 men and 5,162 women from five African capitals (Dakar, Yaoundé, Antananarivo, Lomé, and Nairobi), the sociodemographic and macroeconomic factors influencing this rate of integration and to determine whether these factors act in the same way in both sectors of activity, regardless of the gender of the beneficiaries. Seven categorical variables are used to explain the speed at which a first formal or informal job occurs among men and women at risk over time. These include three ordinal variables (education, generation, macroeconomic periodization) and four nominal variables (native to the capital city, capital city, non-occupational status, marital status). At first glance, the nonparametric longitudinal analysis of cumulative incidence function (CIF) estimators using paired curves of CIF estimators and the results of Fine & Gray regression stratified by place of residence made it possible to verify whether the annual rate of entry into a first formal job (p.e.f) or informal job (p.e.i) was the same for all male and female generations in the five capitals considered. Next, the comparative analysis of the speed of entry into a first formal job (p.e.f) or informal job (p.e.i) calculated using Fine & Gray regression, under the constraint of mutual competition between the two non-renewable events, but in the absence of immigration (the analysis excludes migrants who found employment immediately upon arrival in the capital), showed that, despite the striking difference in the way the two productive sectors operate (the formal sector is hyper-structured, while the informal sector is unstructured), there were, for both men and women, exposure variables whose total effect significantly, even highly significantly, determines the subdivision risk rates (SRR) of these events for all categories present. However, it is important to note a significant limitation that must be taken into account when interpreting and validating the results of Fine & Gray's descriptive and regression analyses. This limitation is the selection bias introduced deliberately due to the exclusion of immigrants who found employment immediately upon arrival in the capital from the analyses.