What industrial, economic and political factors have influenced reshoring and nearshoring dynamics in U.S. manufacturing since 2017, and what do these dynamics imply for supply-chain operations and performance?

Details

Supervisors

Agrell, Per Joakim

Faculty

Louvain School of Management

Degree label

Master [120] : ingénieur de gestion, à finalité spécialisée

Abstract

This Master’s thesis examines the recent reconfiguration of American manufacturing supply chains since 2017 focusing on reshoring and nearshoring dynamics. The objective was to identify the principal political, industrial and economic factors influencing these phenomena and to evaluate if the observed changes correspond more to a return of manufacturing production to the United States or to an increase in nearshore imports. To answer this question, an empirical analysis of panel data was conducted on several American manufacturing sectors for the period of 2017 to 2025. Three complementary models were developed: the first two measuring nearshoring through American imports from Mexico and Canada and the third one measuring reshoring through the share of domestic production in apparent US demand. Explanatory variables include U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, industrial automation, the dependence on Chinese imports, oil prices and sectoral exposure to tariffs. Results indicate that the most significant observable transformation is a regional reallocation of supply chains towards Mexico rather than a massive return of the production to the United States. Trade policies, and in particular the tariffs imposed on Chinese imports, seem to be the principal identifiable factor of this evolution. Automation appears to act as a contextual facilitator factor while the dependence on China reflects both a structural inertia and a dynamic of partial rebalancing. The effect of logistics costs remains ambiguous. Overall, results suggest that recent transformations in the American manufacturing sector reflect a selective regional restructuration of Global Value Chains rather than a vast movement of reshoring.