Russian Cyberwarfare: Development, Deployment, and Future Trends

Details

Supervisors

Liegeois, Michel

Faculty

Faculté des sciences économiques, sociales, politiques et de communication

Degree label

Master [120] en sciences politiques, orientation relations internationales, à finalité spécialisée: diplomatie et résolution des conflits

Abstract

This thesis seeks to develop deeper understandings of Russia’s cyberwarfare development and its future trends. Using insights gained from literary and contextual analysis, the thesis conducts a Strategic Foresight Analysis to create a series of potential futures. The results of these futures can then be applied to new evaluations and predictions of future trends, and consequently influence current strategic decision-making processes. This will contribute to the overall domain of cyberwarfare analysis, which is defined by uncertainty in regard to current capabilities and future developments. The thesis addresses several key areas within the subject of Russian cyberwarfare. These include the origins of Russian cyber-development in Soviet-era doctrine, tactical and doctrinal developments in cyber-psychological/technical warfare and active-defence, and case studies of cyber-integration along conventional operations, including Ukraine. NATO represents a significant factor within the analysis of Russian cyberwarfare; therefore, analysis is conducted on NATO’s responses to Russian cyberwarfare through its own developments in the cyber domain. The findings and understanding are applied to the 2x2 Scenario Method to create four future scenarios: ‘Soviet Spectre’, ‘Cyber Cold War’, ‘Road to War’, and ‘Atlantic Advantage’. Finally, the thesis reviews the scenarios and the insights gained from the analysis to make a final conclusion on Russia’s current position in regard to its cyberwarfare strategy.