Formulating energy policies for Belgium under uncertain carbon budgets

Details

Supervisors

Contino, Francesco ; Coppitters, Diederik

Faculty

Ecole polytechnique de Louvain

Degree label

Master [120] : ingénieur civil en génie de l'énergie , à finalité spécialisée

Abstract

enFacing the climate emergency and the European goal of carbon neutrality by 2050, energy planning is essential. This study uses the EnergyScope Pathway techno-economic optimization model to simulate transition pathways for the Belgian energy system over the period 2020–2050. The approach used is distinguished by two methodological choices. Firstly, a study of the impact of uncertain carbon budgets on transition pathways, with a view to identifying key decisions. These budgets are established on the basis of principles of distributive justice and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Secondly, the integration of a sufficiency scenario (derived from the Clever project), an essential yet often overlooked dimension. The results show that, regardless of the carbon budget constraints, a massive electrification of the energy system represents a structural imperative. The optimization consistently points to a major expansion of electricity generation capacity: onshore wind, solar PV, geothermal, and nuclear. This dynamic is accompanied by widespread adoption of heat pumps in the building sector, a 100% electric vehicle fleet, and the use of hydrogen to decarbonize freight transport. However, achieving these trajectories goes beyond the model’s mathematical feasibility and will require the implementation of ambitious policies. Although current measures are moving in the right direction, a significant acceleration in the deployment of these technologies remains essential to ensure that the set targets are met. Finally, the study confirms that sufficiency is not a substitute, but rather a complementary lever for the deployment of renewable technologies in order to achieve carbon neutrality.