Le budget de la Défense belge depuis 1989 : sa composition, son évolution et ses réformes.

Details

Supervisors

Dujardin, Vincent

Faculty

Faculté de philosophie, arts et lettres

Degree label

Master [120] en histoire, à finalité spécialisée: histoire et archives

Abstract

enFaced with an increasingly threatened national security due to the soaring of terrorist threats, the appearance of hybrid warfare and the return of the Russian threat in Europe after the invasion of Ukraine, the question of the Army’s reinforcement entered the politicians’ discourses. The De Croo and De Wever governments subsequently decided to increase the Army’s budget up to 2% of Belgium’s GDP. Such increase hasn’t been observed since the 1980s. So as to understand such increase, this final year project’s objective is to understand and explain the myriads of factors which impacted the Belgian Army’s budget from 1989 to 2025, be it for political, economic, geostrategic or security reasons. As a means to analyse the budget’s evolution, this project shall tackle documents from the Chamber of Representatives, that is to say the general policy notes, the reports from the plenary sessions and national defense commissions, and proposed bills. This work will consist of four main parts. The first shall examine the security context before 1989, more precisely during le cold war and the East-West blocs opposition. The second chapter will examine the 1989-1999 period, characterized by the Army’s modernisation and restructuration, as well as the withdrawal of Belgian forces from Germany (REFORBEL plan). The third chapter analyses the 1999-2014 period, which coincides with a series of budgetary cuts and consolidations in a context of a world financial crisis. Finally, the fourth chapter will go through the 2014-2025 period, characterized by the rise of the terrorist threat, the appearance of hybrid warfare and the return of the Russian threat. We have observed that the apparition of those threats led to a budget increase, particularly after the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The results of our research indicate that there exists a conflict of interest between the desire to reach a fiscal balance and the desire to keep a strong Army, capable of facing threats and reaching its objectives due to Belgium’s political engagements. Consequently, the Army’s allocated budget is proportional and varies to the perceived threat by the national territory, as well as the financial crises which shook the nation.