Burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence attributable to high temperatures in Europe: a systematic analysis from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease study

Details

Supervisors

Charalampous, Periklis ; Speybroeck, Niko

Faculty

Faculté de santé publique

Degree label

Master [120] en sciences de la santé publique, à finalité spécialisée

Abstract

High temperatures are a major environmental stressor linked to several health outcomes, including self-harm and interpersonal violence. However, comprehensive assessments of the burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence attributable to high temperatures remain limited, particularly across European populations. This study aimed to quantify the burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence attributable to high temperatures across 44 European countries from 2010 to 2021, stratified by sex, age groups, and sub-regions, and to analyze both the absolute and relative differences in deaths and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) rates. This study also aimed to examine the relation between the socio-demographic index (SDI) and death and DALY rates in 2010 and 2021 across all European countries. We extracted age-standardized death and DALY rates per 100,000 stratified by sex, year, location, and five-year interval age-groups from the 2021 GBD study. We calculated absolute and relative differences in deaths and DALY rates between females and males across the selected European countries. Spearman correlations assessed the relationship between death and DALY rates and the SDI. From 2010 to 2021, age-standardized death and DALY rates were higher in males than in females. Eastern Europe showed the largest male-female absolute and relative difference in death rates (0.360 or 366% in 2010; 0.169 or 378% in 2021) and DALY rates (17.1 or 367% in 2010; 7.78 or 381% in 2021). The top three countries with the highest age-standardized death and DALY rates per 100,000 were Russia (death: 0.135; 95% UI: -0.0156 to 0.371; DALY: 6.35; 95% UI: -0.611 to 17.1), Ukraine (death: 0.115; 95% UI: -0.0353 to 0.335; DALY: 5.52; 95% UI: -1.578 to 15.9), and Israel (death: 0.0739; 95% UI: -0.0177 to 0.141; DALY: 3.28; 95% UI: 0.456 to 6.61). Between 2010 and 2021, Eastern Europe showed the largest absolute and relative declines in both death rates (males: -0.245, -53.4%; females: -0.0535, -54.5%) and DALY rates (males: -11.9, -54.7%; females: -2.61, -56.1%) from self-harm and interpersonal violence attributable to high temperatures. European countries with higher SDI showed lower death and DALY rates. The burden of self-harm and interpersonal violence attributable to high temperatures has decreased over the 2010-2021 period but remained higher among European males than in European females. Our findings underscore the need to integrate violence prevention strategies into heat-health action plans and broader climate adaptation efforts.