EU Climate Policy for Clean Ammonia: Wishful Thinking or Industrial Strategy? — Addressing the Chicken-and-Egg Dilemma
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- This dissertation examines the role of green ammonia in EU industrial decarbonisation, focusing on the tensions between climate ambition, energy security, and industrial competitiveness. Although renewable hydrogen-based ammonia is increasingly presented as a pathway to decarbonise hard-to-abate sectors, virtually no green hydrogen or clean ammonia is yet produced at scale in Europe or globally. Its deployment therefore remains constrained by significant technological, economic, infrastructural, and geopolitical barriers. The dissertation addresses three questions: which ammonia technologies should the EU support, why has green ammonia become a policy priority, and how can its large-scale deployment be enabled? It combines an interdisciplinary literature review with semi-structured interviews with industry representatives, policymakers, and academics. The analysis examines three dimensions: technology pathways, comparing established electrolytic hydrogen-based ammonia with emerging alternatives; the origins of the EU’s green-ammonia agenda, particularly the 2020 Hydrogen Strategy; and the “chicken-and-egg” dilemma, whereby investment in supply depends on credible demand, while demand remains constrained by the availability and cost of green ammonia. EU policies designed to stimulate supply, demand, infrastructure, and financing for the lead market of green molecules are assessed against the current market failure and industrial realities. Three complementary pathways are subsequently explored: prioritising sectors where green ammonia offers the greatest decarbonisation potential through the "Green Ammonia Ladder" model, developing imports from regions with abundant renewable energy, and strengthening European industrial policy to support domestic production. The findings highlight a fundamental policy trade-off: decarbonisation may advance Europe’s climate and energy-security objectives while simultaneously increasing the risk of industrial relocation if competitiveness is insufficiently protected. The dissertation therefore calls for a more differentiated and evidence-based approach that reconciles climate ambition with technological realities, international trade, and domestic industrial capacity. Ultimately, it seeks to guide policymakers through a complex technical and economic landscape, while calling for bolder and more ambitious policy and industrial reforms, with climate protection and long-term sustainability as the ultimate beneficiaries.