What is the impact of macroeconomic factors, including economic uncertainty, on the price and volatility of Bitcoin, in comparison to gold and US stocks through a comparative regression analysis?
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- This thesis investigates how macroeconomic factors, including economic uncertainty, affect the price and volatility of Bitcoin. The analysis compares Bitcoin’s behavior to gold and the S&P 500 in order to understand whether Bitcoin functions as a speculative asset, a hedge, or a hybrid instrument. Using monthly data from 2012 to 2025, the study applies linear regressions to assess the influence of inflation, interest rates, money supply, exchange rate volatility, oil prices, and several uncertainty indices (VIX, MPU, GEPU, GPR) on asset returns. The results show that Bitcoin is largely unresponsive to inflation, monetary aggregates, and interest rates. In contrast, it reacts negatively to financial market volatility, with the VIX being significantly associated with its returns. The explanatory power of macroeconomicvariables is muchlowerforBitcoin than for gold orequities. These findings suggest that Bitcoin does not behave like a macro sensitive asset or a safe haven, but rather like a speculative instrument influenced by non-traditional factors.