Market-based Measures of Inflation Expectations and ECB Monetary Policy : Analyzing the Bidirectional Transmission in the Euro Area

Censier, Louis ; Gozlan-Coster, Victor
(2026)

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Details

Supervisors
Iania, Leonardo
Faculty
Louvain School of Management
Degree label
Master [120] en sciences de gestion, à finalité spécialisée
Master [120] : ingénieur de gestion, à finalité spécialisée
Abstract
enMonitoring inflation expectations is central to the conduct of monetary policy, particularly for central banks operating under a price stability mandate such as the European Central Bank (ECB). As these expectations are both an input to policy deliberations and an output of policy actions, the relationship between market-based measures of inflation expectations and EC monetary policy decisions raises an identification challenge: do market inflation expectations drive policy, or do they primarily reflect it?