What are the energy, fleet, and economic impacts of different passenger landbased mobility scenarios in 2050 on Belgium’s energy system?

Details

Supervisors

Contino, Francesco

Faculty

Ecole polytechnique de Louvain

Degree label

Master [120] : ingénieur civil en génie de l'énergie , à finalité spécialisée

Abstract

enThis thesis explores how different land-based passenger mobility scenarios in Belgium could affect the country’s energy system in 2050. It uses an improved version of the EnergyScope TD model to better represent the passenger transport sector. Three scenarios were selected as they reflect the three most common pathways consid- ered for addressing climate change: no major changes, sufficiency and technological improvements. The Trends scenario continues current travel habits and policies. The Sufficiency scenario focuses on reducing travel demand while promoting active and public transport. Finally, the Technological Growth scenario maintains high travel de- mand but relies on improved vehicle efficiency. The results show that all three scenarios can reduce operational GWP emissions enough to meet CORE95 climate targets, but through different approaches and costs. The Suf- ficiency scenario is the cheapest, consumes the least energy, and produces the lowest Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, the Trends scenario has the highest cost, energy use and scope 2 GWP emissions, while the Technological Growth scenario falls between the two. Some limitations must be highlighted. The model focuses on a single year and does not take into account the actual state of technological infrastructure. Additionally, it does not consider how changes in passenger mobility sector might impact demand in other sectors. The findings shows that reducing emissions from the transport sector in Belgium is feasible but requires strong political commitment, significant investment, and broad public support. As highlighted in this study, the most effective way to reduce green- house gas emissions and associated costs from mobility is to follow the principle: “The cleanest and cheapest kilometer is the one not traveled.”