From the Dot-Com to the AI Boom: Strategic Lessons for Managing Innovation Hype

Details

Supervisors

Cornuel, Eric

Faculty

Louvain School of Management

Degree label

Master [60] en sciences de gestion (horaire décalé)

Abstract

enTechnological hype cycles — periods of collective overestimation followed by sharp corrections — represent a recurring strategic challenge for firms. This study conducts a comparative analysis of firm-level strategic decision-making across two major cycles: the Dot-Com era (1995–2001) and the artificial intelligence era (2019–2025), to extract transferable lessons for managers navigating the current environment. Drawing on a critical synthesis of three theoretical bodies — hype cycle theory, strategic management under uncertainty, and technological evolution frameworks — the study develops an original analytical framework organised around three dimensions: epistemic discipline, architectural commitment, and temporal calibration. This framework is applied to seven cases (Amazon, Google, Pets.com, eBay, Nvidia, OpenAI, Hugging Face) through a qualitative comparative case study design. Findings indicate that firms successfully navigating both cycles demonstrate high competence across all three dimensions simultaneously. Four strategic lessons are derived for managers engaged with the current AI cycle.