Extending Careers Beyond 50: Are Labour-Market Transitions Inevitable? A Macro- and Microeconomic Analysis of Older Workers’ Mobility in Europe and Belgium

Details

Supervisors

Vandenberghe, Vincent

Faculty

Faculté des sciences économiques, sociales, politiques et de communication

Degree label

Master [120] en sciences économiques, orientation générale, à finalité spécialisée

Abstract

enThis thesis analyses the extent to which labour-market transitions after the age of 50 constitute an inevitable, or on the contrary, avoidable part of longer working lives in a European context marked by the rise in the legal retirement age and the gradual disappearance of early retirement schemes. While the prevailing view is that this extension mainly occurs within traditional career jobs, our results show that professional mobility at the end of working life plays a significant role. Using aggregated and individual data from European labour force surveys (EU-LFS) covering the period 1998-2022, the analysis combines a macroeconomic and microeconomic approach. The macro analysis reveals a positive and robust association between labour-market transition rates and employment rate for the workers aged 50 and over, suggesting that these transitions do indeed contribute to prolonging working life. The micro analysis reveals a robust negative relationship between labour-market transitions and job stability, which brings the profile of these jobs closer to that of bridge jobs documented in the American literature. These results underline that while the labour market can be a lever for increasing employment among older people, it also exposes them to more precarious trajectories, particularly for less educated workers. These findings call for a rethinking of employment and retirement policies in order to reconcile the quantitative objective of extending working lives with the qualitative objective of improving job quality at the end of a career.