The impact of trade related to the Green Transition on Africa's quality of life, social welfare and environmental outcomes

Details

Supervisors

Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague

Faculty

Faculté des sciences économiques, sociales, politiques et de communication

Degree label

Master [120] en sciences économiques, orientation générale, à finalité spécialisée

Abstract

enThis thesis examines the impact of trade related to the green transition on Africa's quality of life, social welfare and environmental outcomes. As the global economy shifts towards renewable energy and low-carbon technologies, the continent's position as a major supplier of critical minerals places Africa at the center of this transformation. This study investigates the multifaceted implications of this transition for sustainable development in African countries. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the study combines quantitative analysis from recent econometric studies with qualitative assessment of policy frameworks and case studies from 30 sub-Saharan African countries between 1995 and 2024. The theoretical framework draws on the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, the Pollution Haven Hypothesis and Just Transition theory to analyse the complex relationships between trade, environmental regulation and development outcomes. Key findings reveal that Africa accounts for around 30% of the world's proven critical mineral reserves. The Democratic Republic of Congo alone holds 54.5% of the world's cobalt reserves and is responsible for 74% of global cobalt production. Based on CEPII BACI trade data, the continent exported $180.5 billion worth of minerals in 2023 (all ores under HS Chapter 26, plus precious metals and stones). UNCTAD's broader estimates, which include all critical mineral categories, put the total value of exports at $266 billion. However, regulatory enforcement gaps result in substantial cost discrepancies, with mining compliance costs in the DRC being 3-4 times the Sub-Saharan Africa average (World Bank, 2024). Econometric evidence from Mazorodze (2025) shows that a 1% increase in renewable energy consumption leads to a 0.37 percentage point increase in total employment, with particularly strong positive effects on agricultural employment (an increase of 0.72 percentage points), but negative impacts on industry (a decrease of 0.13) and services (a decrease of 0.34). Trade openness has been found to increase CO2 emissions across African countries, though this relationship is mediated through economic growth, energy intensity and renewable energy substitution channels. In conclusion, while a trade-related green transition presents significant opportunities for Africa, realising the benefits of sustainable development requires strengthened regulatory frameworks, enhanced local value capture and coordinated policy approaches that balance economic development with environmental protection and social welfare considerations.