Definition of a maximum acceptable downtime rate for one of the Belgium production sites of Carmeuse by using different demand forecast models.

Details

Supervisors

Catanzaro, Daniele

Faculty

Louvain School of Management

Degree label

Master [120] : ingénieur de gestion, à finalité spécialisée

Abstract

The purpose of this project-thesis is to determine a maximum acceptable downtime rate for different production lines of a Carmeuse’s production site. This is done in the goal of increasing the fill rate of this site, to decrease the rate of stock outs and backorders. This project will be realized for one of the Carmeuse’s production sites in Belgium. The main objective is therefore to quantify a maximum acceptable rate for production downtime. The three main elements that will be used to constitute this rate are storage capacities, production capacities and demand forecasts. To do so, different tools will be used. Essentially, demand forecasting models, which will provide demand values to be used in the calculation of our rate. Using different models will give different values of rate. The different results will be analyzed, and their relevance will be evaluated to determine if they will be convincing compared to the real situation on the production site. This downtime rate, which is the main element of this project, is today quantifiable. Indeed, Carmeuse has the tools and data to calculate it since the number of hours of production stop is known. However, the maximum acceptable rate of this one is a complete unknown and to find it will therefore be of great value to the Supply Chain teams at Carmeuse. It will alows to know at what point in the production process, situations of backorders or stockouts will be encountered.